This survivor predictor is base off of a study of 2284 patients with papillary carcinoma from 1940-1997.  There are 5 variables that where consider in the study; Metastases, Age, Completeness of resection, Invasion, and Size.  This predictor system is called MACIS.  There are other predictor systems available however I selected this one because it made sense and it was easy to calculate.    

This is actually very simple to use.  Each factor will give a number of points.  Add all the points together and one will have a total score.  This score can then be compared to the graph.  This will show the predicted survival rate over time.

1.  Age:    Younger then 39                                                     (+3.1)

                        OR     

                Older then 39                                                         (0.80 x Age)

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2.  Metastases: Distance Metastasis                                        (+3.0) 

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3.  Completeness of surgery: if not entirely removed                    (+1)

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4.  Invasion:  Local invasion                                                (+1)                                                    

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5.  Size:           in centimeters                                                  (0.3 x Size)

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Here is an example (this is my score):

1.  I’m 32 years old                           +3.1

2.  No distance Metastasis                +0

3.  Tumor was entirely removed          +0

4.   Local invasion                             +1

5   2.0cm in size                               +0.6

                     My MACIS total score:  4.7

Looking at the chart below my MACIS number of 4.7 is in the "less than 6" group.  This group has a 20 year survival rate of almost 100%. 

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*MACIS scores below 6 did not show any elevated mortality rates over someone without this cancer.

Remember this is only a study and someone with papillary carcinoma can always respond different in terms of longevity and survivor rates.  Healthcare, surgeries, and treatments continue to improve.  What was available in 1940-1997 was much different from what is available today.  So do not be discouraged if you have a high MACIS number.  Thyroid cancer treatments and success rates will continue to improve. Stay strong!

Disclaimer: 

This chart is only an estimate.  The exact values from the study were not available.  It is most likely within about 5% of actual study values.

Reference:

Kronenberg: Williams Textbook of Endocrinology, 11th ed. Saunders, 2008, Elsevier