Home Articles Papillary Thyroid Cancer Survival Predictor
Papillary Thyroid Cancer Survival Predictor
Thursday, 11 June 2009 17:29

 Papillary Thyroid Cancer Survivor Rate Calculator

Use this calculator to determine your 20 year survival rate base off your individual cancer circumstances. This calculator was design for papillary thyroid cancer. This data comes from a study of 2284 patients with papillary carcinoma from 1940-1997.

calculator

Calculate your numbers below 

Enter the values requested 

Push "Calculate Score"

     

  

Your Age at diagnosis:
Did the cancer spread to other parts of the body (Metastasize)? Yes No
Was the cancer ONLY partially removed? Yes No
Did the cancer spread throughout the thyroid gland (local invasion)? Yes No
Size of cancer tumor (in centimeters):
Your MACIS total score:
---
20 year survival rate:
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 Developed by linkapps.com

             


This survivor predictor is base off of a study of 2284 patients with papillary carcinoma from 1940-1997. There are 5 variables that where consider in the study; Metastases, Age, Completeness of resection, Invasion, and Size. This predictor system is called MACIS. There are other predictor systems available however I selected this one because it made sense and it was easy to calculate.


                   

This is actually very simple to use. Each factor will give a number of points. Add all the points together and one will have a total score. This score can then be compared to the graph. This will show the predicted survival rate over time.

1.  Age:  Younger then 39 +3.1
     Older then 39 0.08 x Age
2. Metastases: Distance Metastasis +3.0
3.  Completeness of surgery: if not entirely removed         +1
4.  Invasion: Local invasion  +1
5.  Size: in centimeters 0.3 x Size

  Here is an example (this is my score):

1.  I'm 32 years old   +3.1
    
2. No distance Metastasis +0
3.  Tumor was entirely removed           +0
4.  Local invasion +1
5.  2.0cm in size +0.6

 My MACIS total score: 4.7

 

Looking at the chart below my MACIS number of 4.7 is in the "less than 6" group. This group has a 20 year survival rate of almost 100%.

*MACIS scores below 6 did not show any elevated mortality rates over someone without this cancer.

The survivor rate % is on the left side of the graph. There are four groups of MACIS numbers. Less then 6 is dark blue line Between 6-7 is violet line Between 7-8 is yellow line Greater than 8 is light blue line

 thyroidpredictorchart

Remember this is only a study and someone with papillary carcinoma can always respond different in terms of longevity and survivor rates. Healthcare, surgeries, and treatments continue to improve. What was available in 1940-1997 was much different from what is available today. So do not be discouraged if you have a high MACIS number. Thyroid cancer treatments and success rates will continue to improve. Stay strong!

Disclaimer: This chart is only an estimate. The exact values from the study were not available. It is most likely within about 5% of actual study values.

Reference: Kronenberg: Williams Textbook of Endocrinology, 11th ed. Saunders, 2008, Elsevier

 

thyroid cancer calculator

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